Why Solar Module Prices Raising in 2026?
Silver Costs & China Tax Rebate Cancellation
Meta Description: Understand why 2026 solar module prices will rise sharply, including silver cost surges and the impact of China’s PV export tax rebate cancellation on global trade.
The global solar industry faces significant 2026 PV module price hikes, driven by raw material volatility, tech transitions, and key policy shifts—most notably China’s cancellation of PV export tax rebates. This will reshape cost structures for global distributors, developers, and installers, especially those sourcing from China.
1. Key Drivers of 2026 Solar Module Price Hikes
A. Soaring Raw Material Costs
Silver (critical for solar cell metallization) has hit ~$84/ounce, doubling from previous years. PV manufacturing consumes 30% of global industrial silver, pushing its share of module costs from 12% to over 17%—surpassing silicon as the top cost component. Copper, aluminum, and high-purity polysilicon also remain elevated.
B. Supply-Demand Imbalance
The top five manufacturers in China have formed an alliance to strictly control production capacity and have shut down multiple production lines.
C. Tech Transition Costs
The shift to high-efficiency N-type cells requires premium materials and advanced processes. Silver-reduction tech (e.g., silver-clad copper slurry) is under development but not yet scalable to offset silver dependency.
2. China’s PV Export Tax Rebate Cancellation: Core Details & Impact
On January 9, 2026, China’s Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration issued Announcement No. 2 of 2026, outlining a phased PV export tax rebate cancellation (effective based on customs declaration export dates):
April 1, 2026: Full cancellation of 9% VAT rebate for PV modules & silicon wafers (HS codes 85414200, 85414300, 38180011, etc.)—no transition period (rebate was 13% pre-2024, 9% since Dec 2024).
Solar cells: Phased phase-out: 9%→6% (Apr–Dec 2026), full cancellation (Jan 1, 2027).
Exemptions: Consumption tax policies unchanged; inverters, mounting structures, and production equipment (HS 8486, 8479) not included.
Policy aim: Curb “volume growth but price decline” export trends and reduce trade friction risks. Direct impacts:
Immediate 8–10% export price hike (e.g., $9 extra cost per $100 module; ~$6.4–$7.1 profit shrink per 210R module).
Major manufacturers (LONGi Green Energy, Jinko Solar, Trina Solar) accelerate overseas factories (Southeast Asia, U.S., Europe).
Industry consolidation (small low-margin players exit) and faster R&D into silver-reduction/copper electroplating tech.
3. 2026 Market Outlook & Strategic Tips
Short-term: Module prices stabilize at $0.09–$0.1+/watt (higher baseline), potentially delaying cost-sensitive projects. Pre-April 2026 order surges expected as buyers lock in pre-hike pricing.
Long-term: Industry remains on grid parity trajectory; firms investing in next-gen tech, global manufacturing, and premium solutions will thrive.
Strategic Tips:
Distributors/Buyers: Lock in orders before April 1, 2026; verify HS codes; diversify sourcing.
Manufacturers: Accelerate silver-reduction tech and overseas factories; renegotiate contracts.
Developers: Prioritize high-efficiency N-type modules; adjust timelines for Q1 2026 supply volatility.
4. Expert Insight
“The convergence of silver inflation and policy shifts marks a turning point,” notes a senior Energy Trend analyst (Q1 2026 Solar Forecast). “The post-rebate era rewards supply chain resilience and adaptability.”
China PV Industry Association adds: “The cancellation rationalizes global PV prices, reduces trade frictions, and redirects resources to innovation for sustainable growth.”
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Call to Action: Looking to lock in competitive 2026 module pricing before China’s tax rebate cancellation? Contact our team for exclusive quotes, supply chain insights, and customized sourcing solutions.
