Will solar-module prices return to CNY 1/W?
2026 kicks off with a solar-module price spike: top makers lifted TOPCon distributed quotes to CNY 0.82-0.86/W in weeks and hint at weekly hikes. Three forces decide whether CNY 1/W returns:
- Cost—silicon +50 %, silver paste doubled, adding CNY 0.10-0.11/W.
2. Discipline—MIIT-led “anti-price-war” pact caps output and low bids.
3. Demand—BNEF sees first global PV decline in 20 yrs; China may fall 21 %.
Consensus: CNY 1/W will be a ceiling for high-efficiency (TOPCon, HJT, BC) modules only; mainstream panels stay CNY 0.75-0.85/W. 2026 theme: divergence—premium for efficiency, exit for low-tier.
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